By Alexander Nkosi

When analysing politics I don’t use emotions, I try to look at all factors objectively and come to a conclusion which could be as close as possible to reality. Having spent over 13 years handling huge volumes of data, I know numbers can change so quickly and I know that numbers go through various stages of approval in the data management system before sharing with the public, so you can only have a true picture once the data collection, validation and approval process is complete. Below is my prediction of the final registered voters.This prediction is based on the fact that PF has wide structures from section to national levels and has invested more in mobilising people to register as voters.

1. Eastern – 895,437
2. Copperbelt – 632,468
3. Lusaka – 610, 455
4. Southern – 588,432
5. Luapula – 524, 221
6. Northern – 511, 836
7. Muchinga – 490,117
8. Central – 388,290
9. Western – 310,115
10. North Western – 301, 895

The margins between the 1st and 2nd in Central, Copperbelt and Lusaka will be very close. This has been the case for Central as PF takes the Northern part while UPND takes the Southern part. Lusaka and Copperbelt are cosmopolitan Provinces and highly affected by economic fundamentals. The margins will be very close. PF will win Eastern, Northern, Luapula and Muchinga by a wide margin. UPND will win Southern, North Western and Western by a wide margin. So three factors will determine the winner of 2021 elections: 1) How many voters are registered in your strongholds 2) How many registered voters end up voting and 3) How effective you were in dismantling your opponents’ strongholds. Given this background my prediction is that PF will win 2021 elections. Forget about debt default, exchange rate….2021 will be defined by who takes care of fine details.

The issue here is Zambia is not divided into permanent political party strongholds, these are made based on the level of investment political parties make. ECZ’s job is to register voters and if they capture 80% in a certain political party’s stronghold, it is not really their problem because that criteria is down to political party strategies. It is like studying 4 topics out of 10 for an exam and them blaming the lecturer for picking 80% questions from topics you did not study.

What are your predictions and views with regards to voter mobilisation, registration and 2021 elections?

By Alexander Nkosi